The most damage is likely to be in the detail – ie rates of fire for US-provided systems, such as artillery systems and the precision-guided high mobility artillery rocket systems (Himars) which – if accurate – would be militarily useful to Russian planners. UKR assessed to withstand 2-3 more wave strikes” from attacking Russian missiles and drones. One document from late February questioned Ukraine’s “ability to provide medium range air defence to protect the will be completely reduced by May 23. While Ukrainian officials have tried to play down the content, suggesting it might be disinformation and pointing out it does not contain concrete battle plans for its spring offensive, the material broadly reflects what many have suspected: that Ukrainian casualties may be higher than acknowledged, and that Kyiv has been using ammunition for different systems at times at an exhausting rate, raising questions over combat endurance. Most attention has been paid to the documents relating to Ukraine. While the revelations about the degree of US surveillance of Russia are striking, Russia will not have been unaware of this, although the documents could give pointers to exactly how the US is targeting Moscow.ĭocuments reveal the degree to which the US has penetrated the Russian ministry of defence, GRU and the paramilitary Wagner group, largely through intercepted communications and human intelligence sources, which could now be put at risk.

However, most interesting in this regard is the fact that the US was surveilling the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, suggesting a desire in Washington to keep tabs on Kyiv even as it has been supplying it with billions of dollars of weapons systems.ĭetails of US penetrations of the Russian defence ministry and other decision-making circles were also revealed in the run-up to the war in Ukraine when US intelligence was incredibly well apprised of Russian planning. While some have seized on the fact that the US spies on allies such as Israel and South Korea, this has long been known and was described in detail in the documents leaked by Edward Snowden. Second, the material underscores just how effectively the US has penetrated Russian political and military planning to the degree that it appears to be able to alert Ukraine to coming missile strikes and targets. The first, long a bone of contention, is that the US spies aggressively on allies as well as adversaries. While the most eye-catching detail relates to Ukrainian military preparedness and resilience, not least reported shortfalls in weapons supplies including air defence missiles in February, the leak reinforces several key issues. On the last point Chris Meagher, a top spokesperson for the Pentagon, urged caution in “promoting or amplifying any of these documents”, adding that “it does appear that slides have been doctored”. At least some of the material – as seems credible – may have been doctored for disinformation purposes. Denials from other countries named in the material may simply be a case of them lying out of embarrassment. First, intelligence is not foolproof and it could reflect only what US agencies think they know.

However, some material that has appeared on Russian channels appears to have been altered, not least casualty assessments in the Ukraine conflict on both sides that were reportedly doctored to minimise Russian losses and amplify Ukrainian losses.ĭetails in some other documents have been challenged by other countries, including a claim that French soldiers have been engaged in operations in Ukraine.

The US Department of Defense has put out a statement saying it is “continu to review and assess the validity of the photographed documents that are circulating on social media sites and that appear to contain sensitive and highly classified material”.

The leak is being treated seriously by US intelligence agencies, who have launched investigations into the leaks. The photographed papers had folds in them, leading to the working assumption that, given the state of the documents, they were put in a pocket and taken out of a secure location, suggesting someone with a degree of access.

Chelsea platform docs